Texas Housing Market 2026: Prices, Inventory & Trends

The median Texas home sold for $345,000 over the trailing six months, and there were 116,247 of those closings, roughly 19,375 a month. Texas is not one housing market, it is a few hundred of them running at the same time: our data tracks 400 Texas cities, and among the twelve busiest, the median sale price ranges from $249,000 in Lubbock to $669,000 in Frisco. That spread is the single most important thing to understand about Texas. A statewide median is useful for orientation and almost useless for underwriting. Below, the state numbers first, then the city-level detail that actually drives a deal. Asks are running ahead of closings, which is normal in most markets, but the size of the gap is the thing to watch. That is a moderate demand signal, not a frenzy and not a stall. The median of 3 days reflects how quickly the typical tracked listing moves in the listing feed, and feeds vary in how they reset and report that field. Treat it as a directional speed signal, not as proof that every Texas home sells in 72 hours.

What the numbers mean for buyers and sellers

If you are buying: the $25,000 spread is your negotiating room, and it is not evenly distributed. In the highest-priced cities in the table below, a 7% gap is $40,000 or more of real money. Your job is to price the specific property against comparable closed sales rather than against the seller's ask, because the ask is exactly the number that carries the bias. Investors buying at the affordable end of the state have a second advantage: at a $200,000 basis, the same percentage misjudgment costs you a fraction of what it costs at $600,000. For both sides: the statewide $345,000 median is a headline, not a comp. It blends El Paso at $279,950 with Austin at $595,000. Use it to sanity-check a narrative and nothing else.

The biggest markets in Texas

These twelve cities account for 40,998 closings over the last six months, about 35.3% of all recorded Texas sales in the data.

San Antonio alone is 11,147 closings, about 9.6% of the state's volume, at a $299,000 median, which is $46,000 below the state median. That combination, high liquidity plus a below-median price point, is unusual and it is why San Antonio and its satellite towns dominate so much Texas investor conversation. The Dallas-Fort Worth complex splits sharply. Fort Worth closes at $338,990 and Arlington at $338,000, while Dallas proper closes at $495,000, Plano at $525,000, McKinney at $479,000 and Frisco at $669,000. Frisco and Fort Worth sit $330,010 apart on the median inside the same metro, so metro-level analysis will mislead you. Austin, at $595,000 across 1,242 closings, is the highest-priced major market in the top twelve and one of the lower volumes on the list. El Paso and Lubbock sit at the other end, closing 4,070 and 2,516 homes at $279,950 and $249,000. Those are the busiest genuinely low-basis markets among the state's largest cities.

Where the affordable markets are in Texas

Outside the big metros, the price floor drops fast. Wichita Falls carries a $177,250 median across 114 closings, roughly 48.6% below the state median. Marshall closes at $199,250 and Pleasanton at $199,900, both still clearing over 100 sales in six months. The larger affordable markets are the more practical ones. Killeen recorded 874 closings at a $244,450 median, Harlingen 366 at $242,325, and Denison 265 at $240,000. There is also a cluster of San Antonio and El Paso satellites in the affordable tier: Elmendorf at $222,192 with 164 closings, Von Ormy at $233,109 with 155, Horizon City at $232,900 with 137, and Socorro at $239,950 with 147. These sit inside the orbit of the state's highest-volume metros while pricing $105,050 to $122,808 below the state median.

How to analyze a specific Texas property

A state median tells you nothing about the house in front of you. Here is the sequence that does. Start with the local price level, not the state one. Our market pages break pricing down to the ZIP level, which is the smallest geography where medians still mean something. Then value the specific property. Resideline's estimates are frozen at the moment of listing and later graded against the real closing price, and the resulting accuracy record is published on a public accuracy dashboard rather than described in a marketing claim. The comps behind every estimate are visible and adjustable, so if the model pulled a comp from the wrong side of a highway you can remove it and see the number move. Property condition is estimated from the listing photos, which matters in a state where a $299,000 San Antonio median covers everything from turnkey to gut job. Live valuations currently run in 31 states. For a renovation deal, run the numbers before you tour: the ARV calculator sizes after-repair value against rehab budget, and the deal analyzer carries it through to a purchase price you can defend. For a hold, the rental property calculator is where you test rent, vacancy, taxes and debt service against a real basis instead of a rule of thumb. All of the free calculators work without a signup. The discipline is the same at every price point in Texas: price the property, not the state.