Where Are Home Prices Falling in 2026? 25 States Ranked by the Data
Despite the crash talk, no state's same-home house prices fell by more than 1.1 percent in the first half of 2026. Here is the map and the 25-state ranking, built from the closed sales we track, plus where condo prices really are dropping.
Ask the internet and home prices are collapsing from coast to coast. Ask the closed sales and the picture is far narrower. Comparing same-home resales of single family houses in the first half of 2026 with the first half of 2025, prices fell by about 1 percent in two of the 25 states we can measure reliably, Colorado and Florida, and by less than 1 percent in two more, California and Arizona. No state fell by more than 1.1 percent. Oregon was unchanged, the other 20 states rose, and in much of the Midwest and Northeast prices rose 4 to 6 percent.
This is measured the honest way, by watching the same houses sell twice and comparing the two prices, which removes the distortion of which neighborhoods happened to close in a given month. It is the same approach the Case-Shiller and FHFA indexes use, and like them we measure houses and condos separately. The other 25 states do not resell houses often enough in our data, or record the prices publicly enough, for a same-home number to be trustworthy, and we do not guess where the data is thin.
The full ranking
Same-home price change for single family houses over the first half of 2026, and the typical sold price in each state, from the closings we track:
| State | Typical sold price | Same-home change, houses, first half 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado | $585,000 | -1.1% |
| Florida | $410,000 | -1.1% |
| California | $755,000 | -0.6% |
| Arizona | $447,000 | -0.1% |
| Oregon | $527,000 | 0.0% |
| Nevada | $490,000 | +0.2% |
| Washington | $605,000 | +0.7% |
| Georgia | $360,000 | +0.7% |
| Oklahoma | $253,000 | +0.8% |
| South Carolina | $356,000 | +1.1% |
| North Carolina | $375,000 | +1.3% |
| Iowa | $255,000 | +1.4% |
| Alabama | $286,000 | +1.7% |
| Indiana | $275,000 | +1.9% |
| Virginia | $432,000 | +2.1% |
| Kentucky | $275,000 | +2.2% |
| Tennessee | $368,000 | +2.2% |
| Minnesota | $385,000 | +2.4% |
| Michigan | $289,000 | +3.8% |
| Ohio | $265,000 | +4.3% |
| Illinois | $310,000 | +4.5% |
| Pennsylvania | $302,000 | +5.4% |
| Wisconsin | $350,000 | +5.5% |
| New York | $447,000 | +5.9% |
| New Jersey | $570,000 | +6.1% |
The condo exception
If there is a crash anywhere in this data, it is in condos, not houses. Condos are measured separately because they behave differently, and they are the one place where same-home prices are clearly falling: down about 2.8 percent nationally over the first half of 2026, about 5.6 percent in Florida and about 3.1 percent in California. Florida houses, by comparison, were down about 1 percent over the half and roughly flat in the second quarter. We can measure condos reliably in only a few states; in Illinois, the one other state with enough condo resales, condo prices rose about 1 percent.
Two different markets, one map
The split is regional, but the reasons are not uniform. Florida and Arizona had two of the four biggest price run-ups of any state in the pandemic boom, about 58 and 60 percent from the end of 2019 to mid 2022 on the FHFA state index, and both are among the ten states issuing the most building permits per resident since 2020, along with Colorado. The pattern does not hold everywhere: Colorado, California and Oregon gained 38 to 42 percent in the boom, close to New Jersey's 38 and Ohio's 37 percent, and California permits far fewer new homes per resident than the national average.
An independent read agrees, with caveats. The Case-Shiller index for July 2026 showed prices falling year over year in six of the 19 metros with July data (Detroit's July figure was delayed): Seattle, Las Vegas, Denver, Tampa, Portland and Dallas. Five of the six are in states we measure, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Oregon, and all five show same-home house price changes between -1.1 and +0.7 percent in our data; Dallas is in Texas, which our ranking does not cover. The agreement is not perfect: Case-Shiller still shows gains in Miami and in all three California metros it tracks, a reminder that a state figure can hide very different cities.
What falling actually means here
A state at about negative 1 percent is not a state in freefall. On a $400,000 house that is roughly $4,000 off last year's value, unwound over twelve months. It is a small giveback after the double digit gains of 2020 and 2021, not a wipeout. Read it as air slowly leaving tires that were pumped hard in the boom, not the wheels coming off.
The more useful question is not which state, but which house. Two homes a mile apart, one renovated and one dated, can move in opposite directions in the same soft market. Before you conclude a home is falling, comp it against recent closed sales, not against a state average or an asking price. Our free tools show the closed comparable sales and the local trend for any address.
Where prices are still climbing
If you are selling in the Midwest or the Northeast, the crash narrative is working against you. New Jersey, New York, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio all posted same-home house price gains of roughly 4 to 6 percent, the strongest in the country, and Michigan was close behind. Buyers there who are waiting for a national correction to reach them may be waiting a long time.
For the wider national picture and how this compares to past downturns, see is the housing market crashing. For where buyers get the most negotiating room, see is it a buyer's market right now.
How we measured this
- •Same-home prices: a repeat-sale index, the method behind the Case-Shiller and FHFA indexes, built from pairs of sales of the same single family house held between one and twelve years. The change compares the average index level for January to June 2026 with January to June 2025, which keeps both periods inside the part of our data with full national coverage. It rests on 252,646 house resales in the first half of 2026. Condos are computed the same way, separately, from 29,507 condo resales. A state is reported only with at least 20,000 matched pairs overall and 2,000 resales in the first half of 2026; 25 states qualify for houses.
- •Typical sold price: the median single family closing in each state from March through August 2026, after removing duplicate records.
- •Map colors: a state is shaded as down 1 percent or more, down less than 1 percent, unchanged to up 1.5 percent, up 1.5 to 3 percent, up 3 to 5 percent, or up 5 percent or more. Hatched states have too few repeat house sales to measure.
Sources
- •S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, July 2026 release, September 29, 2026
- •FHFA purchase-only house price index by state, seasonally adjusted, fourth quarter 2019 to second quarter 2022
- •Census Bureau Building Permits Survey, state annual totals 2020 to 2025, per resident using Census population estimates
Frequently Asked Questions
Which states have falling home prices in 2026?
Measured on single family houses over the first half of 2026, four of the 25 states we can track reliably had negative same-home price estimates: Colorado and Florida, each about -1.1 percent, California at -0.6 percent and Arizona at -0.1 percent. No state fell by more than 1.1 percent. Condos are different: condo prices fell about 2.8 percent nationally, about 5.6 percent in Florida and about 3.1 percent in California.
Are home prices dropping in Florida?
Modestly for houses, sharply for condos. Same-home house prices in Florida were down about 1 percent over the first half of 2026 and roughly flat in the second quarter, while Florida condo prices fell about 5.6 percent. Florida also gives buyers the most negotiating room in our data: over the 12 months to June 2026, about 81 percent of the homes we can trace sold below their original asking price.
Where are home prices still rising?
The Midwest and Northeast. New Jersey led at about 6 percent same-home growth for houses over the first half of 2026, followed by New York, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio, all around 4 to 6 percent.
Why are prices soft in the Sun Belt but rising in the Midwest?
Part of the answer is the boom and building. Florida and Arizona had two of the four biggest price run-ups of any state from the end of 2019 to mid 2022, and they and Colorado issue far more building permits per resident than the national average, while the Midwest and Northeast build far fewer. It does not explain all of them: California's boom-era gain was close to New Jersey's, and California builds relatively little.
How much are prices falling in the states that are down?
By about 1 percent or less for houses. A state at about negative 1 percent means the typical house gave back roughly 1 percent of its value, or about $4,000 on a $400,000 house. That is a small giveback after the double digit gains of 2020 and 2021, not a 2008-style decline, when the Case-Shiller national index fell about 27 percent from peak to trough. Condos are falling faster, about 5.6 percent in Florida.
How do you measure whether prices are falling?
By tracking the same homes selling twice and comparing the two prices, the repeat-sale method used by the major national indexes. It removes the distortion of which neighborhoods happened to sell in a given month. We measure houses and condos separately, report only states with enough matched pairs to be reliable, and compare the first half of 2026 with the first half of 2025 rather than single months.
About the author
Jeffrey Batista
Jeffrey Batista is the founder of Resideline, a real estate technology company building institutional grade valuation and investment analysis tools for real estate investors.
A software engineer with more than 10 years of experience, Jeffrey has worked across full stack development, infrastructure, data engineering, machine learning, and large scale systems. He left his engineering career to build Resideline full time.
Jeffrey is also a real estate investor with nearly a decade of hands on experience buying, renovating, managing, and analyzing residential properties. His experience on both sides of the industry, as an engineer and an investor, led him to build Resideline after seeing how fragmented and outdated many of the tools available to individual investors were.
Today, he leads the development of Resideline's proprietary data infrastructure, automated valuation models, rental analytics, and investment underwriting technology.
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